diff --git a/docs/BUSINESS-ANALYSIS.md b/docs/BUSINESS-ANALYSIS.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..147d651 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/BUSINESS-ANALYSIS.md @@ -0,0 +1,458 @@ +# Business Analysis: Personal Data Infrastructure + +*Analysis date: February 2026* + +## Executive Summary + +This document evaluates the commercial viability of building a company around personal data management infrastructure—making it easy for individuals to own, sync, and backup their data without relying on big tech cloud services. + +**Verdict**: Viable as a company, but requires significant UX investment and a hybrid open-source/SaaS model. Pure "NixOS config" approach is better suited as an open source project. + +--- + +## The Problem + +People's digital lives are fragmented across: +- iCloud, Google Drive, Dropbox (documents) +- Google Photos, iCloud Photos (media) +- Various note apps with proprietary sync +- No unified backup strategy + +The privacy-conscious and technically-minded want alternatives but face: +1. **Complexity**: Setting up Syncthing + Immich + Jellyfin + backups is a weekend project minimum +2. **Maintenance burden**: Updates, certificates, networking, troubleshooting +3. **Mobile gap**: Self-hosted solutions have poor mobile integration +4. **No unified experience**: Each service is its own island + +--- + +## Market Opportunity + +### Evidence of Demand + +| Signal | Data Point | +|--------|------------| +| Immich GitHub stars | 50,000+ (explosive growth) | +| Syncthing users | Millions of active installations | +| Obsidian users | 1M+ (many want self-hosted sync) | +| r/selfhosted subscribers | 400,000+ | +| "Local-first" movement | Growing developer mindshare | +| Data privacy regulations | GDPR, state privacy laws driving awareness | + +### Target Segments + +1. **Privacy-conscious professionals** (lawyers, doctors, journalists) + - Have sensitive data + - Regulatory requirements + - Willing to pay for compliance + +2. **Tech-savvy families** + - Want to share photos without Google/Apple + - Home media servers + - Price-sensitive but capable + +3. **Small businesses** + - Data sovereignty requirements + - Can't afford enterprise solutions + - Need simple setup + +4. **Developers/power users** + - Want control + - Will self-host + - Evangelists but won't pay much + +--- + +## Business Models + +### Model 1: Managed Hosting (Recommended) + +**What**: "Your own private cloud, we run it" + +``` +Customer pays $15-50/month + │ + ▼ +┌─────────────────────────────────┐ +│ Managed instance on our infra │ +│ ├── Forgejo (git/notes) │ +│ ├── Immich (photos) │ +│ ├── Jellyfin (media) │ +│ └── Automated backups │ +│ │ +│ Customer's subdomain │ +│ photos.john.example.com │ +└─────────────────────────────────┘ +``` + +**Pricing**: +- Starter: $15/mo (100GB, 1 user) +- Family: $30/mo (1TB, 5 users) +- Pro: $50/mo (5TB, unlimited users) + +**Pros**: +- Recurring revenue +- Control over infrastructure (easier support) +- Clear value proposition +- Comparable to iCloud/Google One pricing + +**Cons**: +- Infrastructure costs +- Support burden +- Competing with free self-hosting + +**Comparable**: Cloudron, Umbrel Cloud, Fastmail + +--- + +### Model 2: Sync Backend SaaS + +**What**: Open source clients, paid sync server + +``` +┌──────────────┐ ┌──────────────┐ +│ Desktop │ │ Mobile │ +│ (free) │ │ (free) │ +└──────┬───────┘ └──────┬───────┘ + │ │ + └────────┬───────────────┘ + │ + ┌──────▼──────┐ + │ Sync Cloud │ ← $5-10/month + │ (paid) │ + └─────────────┘ +``` + +**Pricing**: +- Free: Self-host sync server +- Personal: $5/mo (10GB sync) +- Pro: $10/mo (100GB sync, priority) + +**Pros**: +- Low infrastructure cost (just sync, not storage) +- Obsidian Sync model proven ($8/mo, very profitable) +- Users keep data locally (less liability) + +**Cons**: +- Must build excellent clients +- Mobile development required +- Competing with Syncthing (free) + +**Comparable**: Obsidian Sync, Standard Notes, Bitwarden + +--- + +### Model 3: Hardware Appliance + +**What**: Pre-configured device shipped to customer + +``` +┌─────────────────────────────────┐ +│ "DataVault" Appliance │ +│ │ +│ ├── 4TB NVMe storage │ +│ ├── Pre-installed NixOS │ +│ ├── All services configured │ +│ ├── Automatic updates │ +│ └── Mobile apps included │ +│ │ +│ Price: $499 + $10/mo support │ +└─────────────────────────────────┘ +``` + +**Pros**: +- High upfront revenue +- Tangible product +- Solves "where does it run" problem + +**Cons**: +- Hardware logistics (inventory, shipping, returns) +- Requires significant capital +- Support for hardware issues + +**Comparable**: Synology, Umbrel Home, Helm + +--- + +### Model 4: Enterprise/B2B + +**What**: Data sovereignty solution for small-medium businesses + +``` +┌─────────────────────────────────┐ +│ "Sovereign Cloud" for SMB │ +│ │ +│ ├── On-prem or private cloud │ +│ ├── GDPR/HIPAA compliance │ +│ ├── SSO integration │ +│ ├── Audit logs │ +│ └── SLA support │ +│ │ +│ Price: $500-2000/mo │ +└─────────────────────────────────┘ +``` + +**Pros**: +- Higher margins +- Longer contracts +- Less price sensitivity + +**Cons**: +- Longer sales cycles +- Enterprise feature requirements (SSO, audit, etc.) +- Support expectations + +**Comparable**: Nextcloud Enterprise, ownCloud + +--- + +## Competitive Landscape + +### Direct Competitors + +| Company | Model | Pricing | Weakness | +|---------|-------|---------|----------| +| Nextcloud | Self-host + Enterprise | Free / $3K+/yr | Complex, slow | +| Synology | Hardware + Software | $300-2000 hardware | Proprietary, expensive | +| Cloudron | Managed app hosting | $15-50/mo | No unified experience | +| Umbrel | Home server OS | Free + hardware | Limited to home use | + +### Indirect Competitors + +| Company | What they do | Why they matter | +|---------|--------------|-----------------| +| iCloud | Apple ecosystem | Default for Apple users | +| Google One | Storage + Photos | Cheap, integrated | +| Dropbox | File sync | Enterprise relationships | +| Tailscale | Easy networking | Solves part of the problem | + +### Differentiation Opportunities + +1. **Unified experience**: One system for notes, photos, media, backup +2. **NixOS-based reproducibility**: Declarative, auditable, recoverable +3. **True ownership**: Data exportable, no lock-in +4. **Developer-friendly**: Extensible, hackable, open source core + +--- + +## Financial Projections + +### Model 1: Managed Hosting + +**Assumptions**: +- Average revenue per user (ARPU): $25/mo +- Infrastructure cost: 30% of revenue +- Support cost: 20% of revenue +- Churn: 5%/mo initially, 2%/mo at scale + +| Year | Customers | MRR | ARR | Notes | +|------|-----------|-----|-----|-------| +| 1 | 500 | $12.5K | $150K | Seed stage, founder-led | +| 2 | 2,000 | $50K | $600K | Series A territory | +| 3 | 8,000 | $200K | $2.4M | Profitable unit economics | +| 5 | 30,000 | $750K | $9M | Mature business | + +**Break-even**: ~1,000 customers ($25K MRR) + +### Model 2: Sync SaaS + +**Assumptions**: +- ARPU: $7/mo +- Infrastructure cost: 15% (just sync, not storage) +- Much higher volume needed + +| Year | Customers | MRR | ARR | +|------|-----------|-----|-----| +| 1 | 2,000 | $14K | $168K | +| 2 | 15,000 | $105K | $1.26M | +| 3 | 50,000 | $350K | $4.2M | + +**Break-even**: ~5,000 customers + +--- + +## Go-to-Market Strategy + +### Phase 1: Open Source Foundation (Months 1-6) + +**Goal**: Build community and validate demand + +- Release NixOS modules as open source +- Write documentation and tutorials +- Build presence on r/selfhosted, HN, NixOS forums +- Collect feedback, iterate + +**Metrics**: +- GitHub stars: 1,000+ +- Active users: 500+ +- Community Discord: 200+ members + +**Cost**: $0-50K (founder time) + +### Phase 2: Hosted Beta (Months 6-12) + +**Goal**: Validate willingness to pay + +- Launch managed hosting beta +- Free tier for early adopters +- Iterate on onboarding +- Build mobile apps (or partner) + +**Metrics**: +- Beta users: 200+ +- Conversion to paid: 20%+ +- NPS: 40+ + +**Cost**: $50-100K (infrastructure, contractors) + +### Phase 3: Commercial Launch (Months 12-18) + +**Goal**: Sustainable revenue + +- Launch paid tiers +- Content marketing (SEO, YouTube) +- Affiliate/referral program +- Seek seed funding if growing + +**Metrics**: +- Paying customers: 500+ +- MRR: $10K+ +- CAC payback: <6 months + +**Cost**: $100-200K (marketing, team) + +--- + +## Risks and Mitigations + +| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | +|------|------------|--------|------------| +| Big tech improves privacy | Medium | High | Focus on power users, sovereignty | +| Open source forks compete | High | Medium | Build community, add SaaS value | +| Mobile development costly | High | High | Partner or acquire mobile talent | +| Support costs explode | Medium | High | Invest in self-service, docs | +| Tailscale/Cloudflare solves problem | Medium | Medium | Move faster, integrate with them | + +--- + +## Team Requirements + +### Founding Team (0-12 months) + +1. **Technical founder** (required) + - NixOS/Linux infrastructure + - Can build MVP solo + +2. **Product/business founder** (ideal) + - UX sensibility + - Marketing experience + +### First Hires (12-24 months) + +1. **Mobile developer** (critical) + - iOS and Android + - React Native or native + +2. **DevOps/SRE** (important) + - Kubernetes/NixOS at scale + - On-call, monitoring + +3. **Support/community** (important) + - Technical writing + - Community management + +--- + +## Funding Requirements + +### Bootstrap Path + +- Possible to $500K ARR +- Requires 18-24 months of runway +- Founder salary sacrifice + +### Seed Round + +- Raise: $500K-1M +- Use: Mobile apps, marketing, team +- Milestone: $50K MRR + +### Series A (if applicable) + +- Raise: $3-5M +- Use: Scale team, enterprise features +- Milestone: $200K MRR, enterprise customers + +--- + +## Recommendation + +### If Goal is Open Source Impact + +**Don't build a company.** Release everything open source, build community, maybe accept GitHub Sponsors. This project can help thousands without commercial pressure. + +### If Goal is Sustainable Business + +**Pursue Model 1 (Managed Hosting) with Model 2 hybrid**: + +1. Open source the NixOS modules (community, credibility) +2. Offer managed hosting (primary revenue) +3. Build sync backend for self-hosters who want easy sync ($5-10/mo) +4. Partner on mobile apps initially +5. Target $1M ARR within 3 years + +### If Goal is Venture-Scale + +**This is harder.** The market exists but is niche. To hit $100M+ ARR: + +1. Must expand beyond privacy enthusiasts +2. Must have excellent mobile experience +3. Must solve enterprise needs +4. Probably need to raise $10M+ total + +**Honest assessment**: This is more likely a sustainable $5-20M ARR business than a unicorn. That's still a great outcome—just set expectations accordingly. + +--- + +## Next Steps + +1. **Validate demand**: Share this repo, see if people use it +2. **Talk to users**: Interview 20+ potential customers +3. **Build waitlist**: Landing page for managed hosting interest +4. **Prototype mobile**: Can you get photos syncing to self-hosted Immich easily? +5. **Decision point**: After 3 months, decide bootstrap vs raise + +--- + +## Appendix: Comparable Company Deep Dives + +### Tailscale + +- **Founded**: 2019 +- **Funding**: $415M total +- **Revenue**: ~$100M ARR (estimated) +- **Model**: Freemium SaaS +- **Lesson**: "Make hard thing easy" works. They made VPN simple. + +### Obsidian + +- **Founded**: 2020 +- **Funding**: Bootstrapped +- **Revenue**: ~$5-10M ARR (estimated) +- **Model**: Free app + paid sync ($8/mo) + paid publish ($16/mo) +- **Lesson**: Optional paid features can work at scale. + +### Nextcloud + +- **Founded**: 2016 +- **Funding**: ~$30M +- **Revenue**: ~$30M ARR +- **Model**: Open source + enterprise subscriptions +- **Lesson**: Enterprise is where the money is, but requires different product. + +### Synology + +- **Founded**: 2000 +- **Revenue**: ~$1B +- **Model**: Hardware + software bundle +- **Lesson**: Hardware has huge margins if you own the software stack.